Conditions are favorable for the development of negotiation breakdown capable of producing a strike. If deadlock has either produced a strike or radar has indicated intense walkout activity, then a Strike Warning will be issued.
All 17 unions representing workers at NJ Transit Rail may either strike or be locked out beginning at 0:01 on Sunday, March 13th. A second Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) cooling-off period expires on that day, leaving both labor and management free to pursue “self-help”. The unions have been working without a contract since 2010. NJT, and its political masters in the Christie Administration, have been steadfast in their rejection of the union’s proposals and the two PEBs’ arbitration, so the likelihood of a work stoppage is high.
NJT bus and light rail lines are separate divisions of NJT and will continue running.
The direct effects of a strike on the Philadelphia area will be somewhat low. The 554 bus will run extra trips between Atlantic City and Lindenwold, and PATCO has agreed to cross-honor NJT fares between Lindenwold and Philadelphia.
However, the New York/North Jersey area anticipates being unable to replace NJT Rail’s capacity. This will impact Greater Philadelphia-New York supercommuters, including those who take SEPTA or NJT’s River Line to Trenton, and those who drive to Hamilton or Princeton Junction. NJT’s contingency plan, announced at a press conference this morning, includes 40,000 additional seats into New York on buses, ferries, and PATH, but the state-operated rail lines carry 105,000 into Gotham every day.
The removal of NJT service would result in a meltdown of North Jersey’s transportation networks, to a degree being described in apocalyptic terms.
In the event of a service interruption, selected regular NJT and private bus routes will see increased service. Additionally, five temporary park-and-ride routes will operate, including Hamilton Station-Newark Penn and Metropark Station-Harrison PATH. Rail tickets will be cross-honored on buses, light rail, PATH, and ferries.
While the official advice is to carpool, whether to the official park-and-rides or all the way in, neither NJDOT, nor the Port Authority of NY & NJ, nor the NJ Turnpike Authority, has committed to HOV restrictions in the event of a service interruption. This blog considers the failure to do so to be completely insane.
There are, as of yet, no designated park-and-ride locations on Staten Island in the contingency plan.
Highway traffic in North Jersey is expected to come to a standstill on all major roads inside the I-287 beltway. Through-traffic between New England (excluding Fairfield County, CT) and Pennsylvania should divert to a route across the Hudson no farther south than I-84. Traffic to NYC suburbs should cross no further south than the Tappan Zee, if at all possible. Routes using I-287 itself may be unreliable as well.